Total employment in the United States is projected to increase by about 15 percent over the 2002-2012 period. Employment growth, however, is only one source of job openings. The total number of openings in any industry also depends on the industry's current employment level and its need to replace workers who leave their jobs. Throughout the economy, in fact, replacement needs will create more job openings than will employment growth. Employment size is a major determinant of job openings-larger industries generally have larger numbers of workers who must be replaced and provide more openings. The occupational composition of an industry is another factor. Industries with high concentrations of professional, technical, and other jobs that require more formal education - occupations in which workers tend to leave their jobs less frequently - generally have fewer openings resulting from replacement needs. On the other hand, more replacement openings generally occur in industries with high concentrations of service, laborer, and other jobs that require little formal education and have lower wages because workers in these jobs are more likely to leave their occupations.
Employment growth is determined largely by changes in the demand for the goods and services provided by an industry, worker productivity, and foreign competition. Each industry is affected by a different set of variables that determines the number and composition of jobs that will be available. Even within an industry, employment may grow at different rates in different occupations. For example, changes in technology, production methods, and business practices in an industry might eliminate some jobs, while creating others. Some industries may be growing rapidly overall, yet opportunities for workers in occupations that are adversely affected by technological change could be stagnant or even declining. Similarly, employment of some occupations may be declining in the economy as a whole, yet may be increasing in a rapidly growing industry.
As shown above in table 3, employment growth rates over the next decade will vary widely among industries. Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to increase as growth in construction is partially offset by declining employment in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting; mining; and manufacturing. Growth in construction employment will stem from new factory construction as existing facilities are modernized; from new school construction, reflecting growth in the school-age population; and from infrastructure improvements, such as road and bridge construction. Employment in mining is expected to decline due to laborsaving technology and continued reliance on foreign sources of energy.
Manufacturing employment will decrease slightly-employment declines in apparel manufacturing, computer and electronic product manufacturing, and textile mills and products manufacturing will be partially offset by employment gains in food manufacturing and pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing. Apparel manufacturing is projected to lose about 245,000 jobs over the 2002-2012 period-more than any other manufacturing industry-due primarily to increasing imports replacing domestic products. Employment growth in food manufacturing is expected, as a growing and ever more diverse population increase the demand for manufactured food products. Employment growth in pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing is expected, as sales of pharmaceuticals increase with growth in the population, particularly among the elderly, and with the introduction of new medicines to the market. Both food and pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing also have growing export markets.
Growth in overall employment will result primarily from growth in service-providing industries over the 2002-2012 period, almost all of which are expected to have increasing employment. Rising employment in service-providing industries is expected to occur predominately in health services and educational services-the two largest industries discussed in the Career Guide-as well as in employment services, food services and drinking places, state and local government, and wholesale trade. When combined, these sectors will account for almost half of all new wage and salary jobs across the Nation.
Health services will account for the most new wage and salary jobs, about 3.5 million over the 2002-2012 period. Population growth, advances in medical technologies that increase the number of treatable diseases, and a growing share of the population in older age groups will drive employment growth. Offices of physicians, the largest health services industry group, is expected to account for about 770,000 of these new jobs as patients seek more healthcare outside of the traditional inpatient hospital setting.
Educational services is expected to grow by nearly 20 percent over the 2002-2012 period, adding about 2.5 million new jobs. A growing emphasis on improving education and making it available to more children and young adults will be the primary factors contributing to employment growth. Employment growth at all levels of education is expected, particularly at the postsecondary level, as children of the baby boomers continue to reach college age, and as more adults pursue continuing education to enhance or update their skills.
Employment in one of the Nation's fastest growing industries - employment services - is expected to increase by more than 50 percent, adding another 1.8 million jobs over the 2002-12 period. Employment will increase, particularly in temporary help services and professional employer organizations, as businesses seek new ways to make their work forces more specialized and responsive to changes in demand.
The food services and drinking places industry is expected to add more that 1.3 million new jobs over the 2002-2012 projection period. Increases in population, dual-income families, and dining sophistication will contribute to job growth. In addition, the increasing diversity of the population will contribute to job growth in food service and drinking places that offer a wider variety of ethnic foods and drinks.
Almost 760,000 new jobs are expected to arise in State and local government, adding almost 10 percent over the 2002-2012 period. Job growth will result primarily from growth in the population and its demand for public services. Additional job growth will result as State and local governments continue to receive greater responsibility for administering federally funded programs from the Federal Government.
Wholesale trade is expected to add almost 640,000 new jobs over the coming decade, reflecting growth both in trade and in the overall economy. Most new jobs will be in durable goods merchant wholesalers, such as professional and commercial equipment and supplies; electrical and electronic goods; and furniture and home furnishing. However, industry consolidation and the growth of electronic commerce using the Internet are expected to limit job growth to 11 percent over the 2002-2012 period, less than the 15 percent projected for all industries.
Information courtesy of the U.S. Department of Labor.
